A black swan event is a term used to describe a rare and unexpected event that has a major impact on the world. The term is often used to describe financial crises, natural disasters, or other catastrophic events that catch people and organizations by surprise.
The concept of a black swan was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable." Taleb argues that black swan events are not predictable and are often the result of complex systems and interactions.
He also emphasizes that these events have disproportionate effects on the world and can cause significant harm to individuals and organizations that are not prepared for them.
Black swan events are difficult to anticipate and plan for, as they are characterized by their rarity and unpredictability. However, some organizations and governments have started to focus on building resilience and developing strategies to respond to potential black swan events.
Examples of black swan events include:
The 9/11 terrorist attacks
The 2008 global financial crisis
The COVID-19 pandemic
The collapse of the Soviet Union
The oil price shock of 1973.
It's important to note that Black Swan events are not only negative, some can be positive and have a positive impact on society and economy.